West Coast Eagles -12.5 over Port Adelaide for 1 unit
The young, energetic Eagles are coming off a good first round showing against top 4 contender Brisbane. Nick Naitanui proved to be a good option in most positions across the ground in round one. The legs of the Eagles should get them a 20+ point win against an aging, seemingly unmotivated Port outfit who look set to drop the winnable games again this year, ruin their chance of making the eight.
Expected: West Coast by 36
Sydney +12.5 against Adelaide Crows for ½ a unit
Sydney will be expected to be ‘tired’ coming off the huge effort against the Saints. In my opinion, they will have been well aware of the importance of the round 1 clash and will have prepared in a way that got them ready to deal with the tough game and press forward. Adelaide (and this is an early call) look to be the team that ‘promised much but provided little’ this year following a very disappointing round 1 effort (against an admittedly fired up Freo at home). Expect Sydney to again make it a close game, if not win. The class of Goodes, Kirk and Keneally should outclass the brash of Edwards, Bock and McLeod.
Expected: Either team by a goal.
The young, energetic Eagles are coming off a good first round showing against top 4 contender Brisbane. Nick Naitanui proved to be a good option in most positions across the ground in round one. The legs of the Eagles should get them a 20+ point win against an aging, seemingly unmotivated Port outfit who look set to drop the winnable games again this year, ruin their chance of making the eight.
Expected: West Coast by 36
Sydney +12.5 against Adelaide Crows for ½ a unit
Sydney will be expected to be ‘tired’ coming off the huge effort against the Saints. In my opinion, they will have been well aware of the importance of the round 1 clash and will have prepared in a way that got them ready to deal with the tough game and press forward. Adelaide (and this is an early call) look to be the team that ‘promised much but provided little’ this year following a very disappointing round 1 effort (against an admittedly fired up Freo at home). Expect Sydney to again make it a close game, if not win. The class of Goodes, Kirk and Keneally should outclass the brash of Edwards, Bock and McLeod.
Expected: Either team by a goal.
St Kilda v Collingwood
1 Unit St Kilda -18.5 @ 1.91
Collingwood have some injury and selection issues and will struggle to find someone to match up on Riewoldt and Koschintchki. Saints coming off an easy week will be fresh and their hard style of footy should smoulder any flair that Collingwood can muster. Expect Collingwood to run with (if not lead) for the first 3 quarters then fall in a heap in the last.
Nth Melbourne v West Coast Eagles
0.5 Unit West Coast @ 1.95
North have been an absolute disgrace this year. West Coast should have some flare that will get them over the line. Home advantage is minimal. LeCras, Ash Hansen and Dalziell all back in for West Coast.
Carlton v Essendon
4 Units Carlton @ 1.50
1 Unit Carlton -13.5 @ 1.91
I dont like the look of the bombers at the moment. Some big outs this week in the shape of monfries (minus 2 - 3 goals), McVeigh (minus 10 possessions), Prismal and Davey (minus flare, excitement and creativity). Carlton would have beat Brisbane last week if not for Johnathon Brown. Essendon dont have a 'Brown' type character and will struggle to keep up with a fast paced Carlton attack.
Port Adelaide v Brisbane
1 Unit Either Team Under 24.5 Points @ 1.80
Both teams are in good form. Chaplin and Carlisle might shut down Bris big men (fev and JB). Hard to say. Should be close.
Fremantle v Geelong
5 Units TAKE Geelong @ 1.62
No Scarlett, no Mooney. Still LOVE Geelong Head to Head. Punters are backing Freo but I think this is an error. The form of Freo has been good, but Geelong have too much class. Teams like Freo limp at some stage in the season and I think this week is the start of their rot. Geelong have a full 4 quarters in them every week, whereas Freo have struggled to put together the concentration and skills for the whole game. I'll expect a close game, but Geelong's poise and class will get them over the line in the end (sealed with a strong premiership quarter). Wait on the price to see if it increases (which it well might do).
Fun 1 Unit Multi for the weekend:
St Kilda (Straight) +
Carlton (+24.5) +
Sydney (Half/Full Double) +
Either team by Under 60 pts (Melb v Ade) +
Geelong (+24.5)
Total Odd $2.39
1 Unit St Kilda -18.5 @ 1.91
Collingwood have some injury and selection issues and will struggle to find someone to match up on Riewoldt and Koschintchki. Saints coming off an easy week will be fresh and their hard style of footy should smoulder any flair that Collingwood can muster. Expect Collingwood to run with (if not lead) for the first 3 quarters then fall in a heap in the last.
Nth Melbourne v West Coast Eagles
0.5 Unit West Coast @ 1.95
North have been an absolute disgrace this year. West Coast should have some flare that will get them over the line. Home advantage is minimal. LeCras, Ash Hansen and Dalziell all back in for West Coast.
Carlton v Essendon
4 Units Carlton @ 1.50
1 Unit Carlton -13.5 @ 1.91
I dont like the look of the bombers at the moment. Some big outs this week in the shape of monfries (minus 2 - 3 goals), McVeigh (minus 10 possessions), Prismal and Davey (minus flare, excitement and creativity). Carlton would have beat Brisbane last week if not for Johnathon Brown. Essendon dont have a 'Brown' type character and will struggle to keep up with a fast paced Carlton attack.
Port Adelaide v Brisbane
1 Unit Either Team Under 24.5 Points @ 1.80
Both teams are in good form. Chaplin and Carlisle might shut down Bris big men (fev and JB). Hard to say. Should be close.
Fremantle v Geelong
5 Units TAKE Geelong @ 1.62
No Scarlett, no Mooney. Still LOVE Geelong Head to Head. Punters are backing Freo but I think this is an error. The form of Freo has been good, but Geelong have too much class. Teams like Freo limp at some stage in the season and I think this week is the start of their rot. Geelong have a full 4 quarters in them every week, whereas Freo have struggled to put together the concentration and skills for the whole game. I'll expect a close game, but Geelong's poise and class will get them over the line in the end (sealed with a strong premiership quarter). Wait on the price to see if it increases (which it well might do).
Fun 1 Unit Multi for the weekend:
St Kilda (Straight) +
Carlton (+24.5) +
Sydney (Half/Full Double) +
Either team by Under 60 pts (Melb v Ade) +
Geelong (+24.5)
Total Odd $2.39
Round 4
Nth Melbourne v Sydney 2 Units Sydney -11.5
Sydney still running hot. No reason that they should be so short. Back them all the way.
Adelaide v Carlton 1 Unit Carlton @ 2.00
O'Hailpin to kick a few on a weak Adelaide. Home advantage has meant nothing to them so far this year and should continue to mean nothing this week.
Collingwood v Hawthorn 1 Unit Hawthorn Straight @ 2.32
Been impressive this year. Are working towards a win and should get one against Collingwood who show promise but tend not to produce in the key games.
5 Unit Multi:
Either team under 60 points in every game (sportingbet.com.au):
Total Odd 2.20
Total Odd $2.39
Nth Melbourne v Sydney 2 Units Sydney -11.5
Sydney still running hot. No reason that they should be so short. Back them all the way.
Adelaide v Carlton 1 Unit Carlton @ 2.00
O'Hailpin to kick a few on a weak Adelaide. Home advantage has meant nothing to them so far this year and should continue to mean nothing this week.
Collingwood v Hawthorn 1 Unit Hawthorn Straight @ 2.32
Been impressive this year. Are working towards a win and should get one against Collingwood who show promise but tend not to produce in the key games.
5 Unit Multi:
Either team under 60 points in every game (sportingbet.com.au):
Total Odd 2.20
Total Odd $2.39
that parlay last week or every game by under 60 was silly. What was i thinking! Tried to get too fancy.
Round 5
Adelaide +37.5 for 1/5 units. Heard an interview with the Adelaide coach this week and he was surprisingly upbeat. Adelaide should come good eventually and i think they will fight hard here
WCE +31.5 for 1.5 units. History says that this will be a close game. WC are on the improve and should challenge Sydney in their style of plan. Expecting Sydney to win by between 10 and 15 points.
St K – 22.5 for 2 units. Way underpriced. St K were pushed hard by Freo last week and will be all the better for the run. Port were awful against Geelong and no reason they shouldn’t be awful this week.
Coll -23.5 for 1 unit. Essendon are out on their feet. Collingwood surprised me last week and seem to be showing better form than past years. Should be another convincing victory.
Round 5
Adelaide +37.5 for 1/5 units. Heard an interview with the Adelaide coach this week and he was surprisingly upbeat. Adelaide should come good eventually and i think they will fight hard here
WCE +31.5 for 1.5 units. History says that this will be a close game. WC are on the improve and should challenge Sydney in their style of plan. Expecting Sydney to win by between 10 and 15 points.
St K – 22.5 for 2 units. Way underpriced. St K were pushed hard by Freo last week and will be all the better for the run. Port were awful against Geelong and no reason they shouldn’t be awful this week.
Coll -23.5 for 1 unit. Essendon are out on their feet. Collingwood surprised me last week and seem to be showing better form than past years. Should be another convincing victory.
For the last few years i've been quite good at AFL, then the first time I start posting things go terrible. Isn't it always the way! Long way to go in the season though
Anyway, heres some thoughts for this week:
2 units Melbourne @ 1.80
Like them at 1.80 or above. Nth Melb wont back up with a win.
1 unit Essendon +14.5
Hawks = crap. Essendon = full of run.
1 unit Sydney -11.5
Brisbane aren’t good away from home. Played badly last week. Swans have impressed and have the backline to deal with an under fullstrength Brown and a Fevola who historically isn’t good against Sydney’s backline
2 units Richmond +57.5
Geelong will get ahead then take the foot off and Richmond will stay within arms length. Geelong by 5 – 7 goals.
½ unit Carlton Straight.
Like Carlton’s run and enthusiasm at the moment. Judd is a huge in.
1 unit Fremantle 25+ @ 2.20
Should be a good game but Fremantle should have the run to get away in the 3rd and 4th quarter
Anyway, heres some thoughts for this week:
2 units Melbourne @ 1.80
Like them at 1.80 or above. Nth Melb wont back up with a win.
1 unit Essendon +14.5
Hawks = crap. Essendon = full of run.
1 unit Sydney -11.5
Brisbane aren’t good away from home. Played badly last week. Swans have impressed and have the backline to deal with an under fullstrength Brown and a Fevola who historically isn’t good against Sydney’s backline
2 units Richmond +57.5
Geelong will get ahead then take the foot off and Richmond will stay within arms length. Geelong by 5 – 7 goals.
½ unit Carlton Straight.
Like Carlton’s run and enthusiasm at the moment. Judd is a huge in.
1 unit Fremantle 25+ @ 2.20
Should be a good game but Fremantle should have the run to get away in the 3rd and 4th quarter
Essendon 3 units @ 1.75 – Port players coming back in are underdone and Essendon should be good at home after a good win last week.
2 units Fremantle to win @ 2.75
2.5 units Fremantle +14.5 – Bookies have this one wrong. Freo are still running hot and Brown is still not 100%. Selwood out is big and Fremantle have named an unchanged side from their dismantling of West Coast last week. Freo to win.
1 unit Geelong -23.5 – Swans are battered. Geelong at home are too good and with Scarlett and Ablett both back in should be a 5 or 6 goal win
2 units Fremantle to win @ 2.75
2.5 units Fremantle +14.5 – Bookies have this one wrong. Freo are still running hot and Brown is still not 100%. Selwood out is big and Fremantle have named an unchanged side from their dismantling of West Coast last week. Freo to win.
1 unit Geelong -23.5 – Swans are battered. Geelong at home are too good and with Scarlett and Ablett both back in should be a 5 or 6 goal win
AFL Round 8
2 units Fremantle @ 2.02
I think the bookies are again underestimating a Freo club that has generated better club spirit than they have ever had. An almost unchanged from their (predicted) trouncing of Brisbane last week should continue to topple the giants with a win at home against Collingwood. Should still be really close but Freo to get over the line.
3 units Geelong -19.5
Showed their class last week and Brisbane are still not at full strength. Even at home, Lions will have trouble containing a Geelong side who have had their necessary loss for the year, have woken up, and are at almost full strength. Ablett and Stokes to feature heavily.
1 unit Adelaide @ 2.30 and 1 unit Adelaide +9.5
Not sure North have the ability to back up after the heavy defeat to Collingwood. They did me in last week and some chance they will do it again, but Adelaide looked their old selves as they rallied late in the game last week against Richmond to thrash them. Should have some confidence and I’m backing them to ride it and put 2 wins together (or else go close).
2 units Hawthorn -30.5
How Richmond can be so poor is beyond me. Will have no answer for Buddy and Roughhead up front. Expect a high scoring game (most of the scoring being done by Hawthorn). If you can find an over / under, take the over. Buddy and Roughy to kick 5 each in a 10 goal win.
2 unit Multi:
St Kilda +24.5 into Hawthorn Straight into Geelong straight into Fremantle +24.5
Total Odd: 2.30
2 units Fremantle @ 2.02
I think the bookies are again underestimating a Freo club that has generated better club spirit than they have ever had. An almost unchanged from their (predicted) trouncing of Brisbane last week should continue to topple the giants with a win at home against Collingwood. Should still be really close but Freo to get over the line.
3 units Geelong -19.5
Showed their class last week and Brisbane are still not at full strength. Even at home, Lions will have trouble containing a Geelong side who have had their necessary loss for the year, have woken up, and are at almost full strength. Ablett and Stokes to feature heavily.
1 unit Adelaide @ 2.30 and 1 unit Adelaide +9.5
Not sure North have the ability to back up after the heavy defeat to Collingwood. They did me in last week and some chance they will do it again, but Adelaide looked their old selves as they rallied late in the game last week against Richmond to thrash them. Should have some confidence and I’m backing them to ride it and put 2 wins together (or else go close).
2 units Hawthorn -30.5
How Richmond can be so poor is beyond me. Will have no answer for Buddy and Roughhead up front. Expect a high scoring game (most of the scoring being done by Hawthorn). If you can find an over / under, take the over. Buddy and Roughy to kick 5 each in a 10 goal win.
2 unit Multi:
St Kilda +24.5 into Hawthorn Straight into Geelong straight into Fremantle +24.5
Total Odd: 2.30
holy shit...
had money on pies to win by 1-39points.. and freo kicked a goal after the siren to get the margain back to 36 n i won the bet.. Gods were with me tonight.. one of the best wins i've ever had as a bettor lol. nearly as good as pau's putback layup with 0.5seconds left last week vs OKL
THANK YOU!!!!!!!!
had money on pies to win by 1-39points.. and freo kicked a goal after the siren to get the margain back to 36 n i won the bet.. Gods were with me tonight.. one of the best wins i've ever had as a bettor lol. nearly as good as pau's putback layup with 0.5seconds left last week vs OKL
THANK YOU!!!!!!!!
Round 9
3 units Geelong straight 1.72
What great value for a team that is really hitting its stride at the right time in the season. Podsiadly up front and Kelly down back are great additions in place of some not so strong players and John Anthony out for Collingwood will have an impact. Should be a good, free flowing game with both teams playing exciting brands of football and being full of classy players. Scarlett should hold the on-fire Cloke to no more than 2 goals and Ling / Ablett should limit the room that Swan has to move. 20 point win to Geelong and Swan to have less than 20 possessions (also Leon Davis to fade into the background, barely getting a touch).
1 unit Melb +10.5 is enough for me to have a small bet.
Melbourne have a few key ins that make me like them this week. Austin Wonaeamirri is creative, Brad Miller is strong and Mark Jamar is in great form. Port are a very up and down side this year and might struggle away from home in front of an up and about Melbourne crowd.
2 units BL -6.5 should be easily covered.
Was expecting this line to be a lot further out (like 30 points). Adelaides inner club turmoil during the week, coupled with their crap performances and not having Bernie Vince means that Brisbane have a chance to get their season back on track. Brown is back to full fitness and Adelaide do not have a key backman to hold Fevola. I’m predicting a 40+ point smashing with the class of Black and Daniel Rich (30 possessions each) to overcome a limp Adelaide midfield. Taylor Walker and Kurt Tippett to drop key marks and barely kick a goal between them.
2 unit St K -2.5
2 units St K Straight
No real key ins or outs for either team this week. Saints have struggled without Riewoldt and WC had a good win last week. Lenny Hayes is playing great for Saints and Milne and Koschitzke should fire this week. Was expecting a much bigger line and am keen on the saints minus and straight up.
3 units Geelong straight 1.72
What great value for a team that is really hitting its stride at the right time in the season. Podsiadly up front and Kelly down back are great additions in place of some not so strong players and John Anthony out for Collingwood will have an impact. Should be a good, free flowing game with both teams playing exciting brands of football and being full of classy players. Scarlett should hold the on-fire Cloke to no more than 2 goals and Ling / Ablett should limit the room that Swan has to move. 20 point win to Geelong and Swan to have less than 20 possessions (also Leon Davis to fade into the background, barely getting a touch).
1 unit Melb +10.5 is enough for me to have a small bet.
Melbourne have a few key ins that make me like them this week. Austin Wonaeamirri is creative, Brad Miller is strong and Mark Jamar is in great form. Port are a very up and down side this year and might struggle away from home in front of an up and about Melbourne crowd.
2 units BL -6.5 should be easily covered.
Was expecting this line to be a lot further out (like 30 points). Adelaides inner club turmoil during the week, coupled with their crap performances and not having Bernie Vince means that Brisbane have a chance to get their season back on track. Brown is back to full fitness and Adelaide do not have a key backman to hold Fevola. I’m predicting a 40+ point smashing with the class of Black and Daniel Rich (30 possessions each) to overcome a limp Adelaide midfield. Taylor Walker and Kurt Tippett to drop key marks and barely kick a goal between them.
2 unit St K -2.5
2 units St K Straight
No real key ins or outs for either team this week. Saints have struggled without Riewoldt and WC had a good win last week. Lenny Hayes is playing great for Saints and Milne and Koschitzke should fire this week. Was expecting a much bigger line and am keen on the saints minus and straight up.
